Importance of Natural Resources

Understanding, Predicting, and Tracking Harmful Algal Blooms: The Current Webinar 40

Hello everyone, why don’t we go ahead and
get started. This is Rebecca Power and I would love
to welcome you to the Current, the North Central Region Water Network speed
networking webinar series. I am joining you from the University of Wisconsin and
I will be your moderator for the day. Since some of you may be new to the
North Central Region Water Network we are an extension led collaboration of
land-grant universities and our partners in twelve upper Midwestern states. We
deal with all kinds of water issues from nutrient management to storm water to
working with our colleagues in tribal colleges and tribal communities to
developing the next generation of abuse water stewards through citizen science
and and other other means harmful algal blooms bring so many of these issues
together which is why we we had a lot of a lot of registration registrants for
this webinar and glad that you all are are joining us today so as I said
today’s topic is understanding tracking and predicting harmful algal blooms and
you’re all here because you know the serious challenges that we’re facing
there and I think also also some opportunities for working with
communities and and doing better at managing our water resources so we have
some great presenters for you today before we go there just a few tips for
engaging in this webinar you can submit any questions that you have for our
presenters in the chat box that chat box is accessible
right panel in the lower right corner of of the webinar screen there’s a little
tab purple tab they’re decadent question-and-answer session after all of
our presenters are complete and we try to leave a good amount of time for that
if you’re having trouble with the audio and if we do continue to get
substantially more people chiming in there may be some lag problems that you
might notice so if we’re having problems with the phone there is a phone in
option that can be accessed by opening the session menu in the upper left hand
corner of the screen and selecting use your phone for audio. As always these
sessions will be recorded and are available at and Okay, with that said we have three presenters
today: Kristin Devanna Fussell from Ohio Sea Grant and Stone
Labs and she’s going to be talking to us about Lake Erie, harmful algal blooms, and
current research efforts. A lot going on there in the in Lake Erie and Western
Lake Erie Basin so we’re looking forward to hearing from Kristin. Grace Wilkinson
from Iowa State University is going to give us an excellent overview of some
things to think about when predicting harmful algal blooms or trying to
predict them, and then finally Devin Grace Gill will be from the co-operative
Institute for Great Lakes Research will be talking to us about the extension
and outreach, an extension and outreach component engaging stakeholders in great
lake little research. So to introduce our
first presenter, I am not going to read through that you can read it yourself
there obviously she’s assistant director for administration and research at Ohio
Sea Grant and has a long long history of great work related to this topic. So with
that, let’s give the the mic over to Kristen. Hello everyone
thanks and I’m excited to be the first presenter on this webinar with a lot of
really interesting information. I get my pointer here. Um as the introduction said
I’m going to talk a little bit about Lake Erie harmful algal blooms and what
sets the stage for the western basin of Lake Erie to be um, one of kind of the
prime places for harmful algal blooms in the Great Lakes, and then also talk about
Ohio sea grants research efforts, the state of Ohio as well, and what’s going
on here in the state. I think we have a lot of
great research going on currently. So what really sets the stage for Lake Erie HABs I’m gonna back up here a little bit,
this slide is showing a cross-section of all five of our Great Lakes, so you see, Lake Superior over here, um Lake Huron and Lake Michigan are over-lapping, Lake Erie and then on to Lake Ontario. What I really want to point
out here is that Lake Erie is obviously the most shallow of our Great Lakes so
small volume of water, light can penetrate pretty far within the lake
reaching the bottom in many areas of the western basin,
and that’s really kind of setting up harmful algal blooms in this region. Also
setting the stage for HABs in Lake Erie this is a graph showing the Great Lakes
watershed land use. So here on the y-axis we have our percent land use and then on
the x-axis all of our five Great Lakes the lighter blue color is urban areas in
the watershed, orange is agriculture, gray grassland, yellow forest, and the darker
blue wetlands. What we see when we’re highlighting Lake Erie
is Lake Erie has the largest percentage of urban land use when compared to the
other four Great Lakes and also has the highest percent of agricultural land use
in our watershed we have the least amount of forests and only 10% of our
original wetlands are still remaining so with the shallowness the small volume of
water lots of light penetration along with the watershed land use this really
sets a stage for harmful algal blooms in our area so what we get sometimes and
are more often than not nowadays in August, September, and into October and the
western basin of Lake Erie is this water that kind of looks like someone just
filled bright green paint in it so on calm days when this surface scum can
arise this is what the water tends to look like in the western basin here’s
another picture of a boater near Marblehead so this is not watery you’d
probably want to go tubing or swimming in or recreation I mean this is in
October so depending on temperatures these harmful algal blooms can persist
for quite a while in this area it’s not only a Western Basin problem depending
on wind direction speed that sort of thing we can see the harmful algal
blooms reaching both the north and the south shore of Lake Erie so affecting
Canada and the US as well as many major cities along the way and reaching into
the central basin of Lake Erie as you can imagine this affects the
tourism industry in the state of Ohio um eight of our 88 counties border Lake
Erie and those eight counties alone on an annual basis bring in about a 14
point 1 billion dollar tourism impact for the state and then when compared to
the 88 counties in general so that’s you know less than 10% of our counties is a
much larger proportion of the state’s total tourism just coming from those
eight counties so it’s a really important tourism destination and
important for the economy of the state of Ohio and as seen in those pictures
it’s probably not somewhere where your family wants to spend vacation during
that the end of our summer season but some other economic factors to consider
are the cost of removing the microsystem toxins from drinking water this is an
issue in Toledo Ohio in 2014 and then the associated cost to communities with
drinking water advisories also the Charter captain and marina industries
are affected by these blooms there’s a general overall impact on our fishery
but then kind of looking at the other side when we’re thinking about ways to
manage these harmful algal blooms so we also have to think about the jobs and
revenue brought into the state due to agriculture so the land use like I
showed before is heavily agricultural in the at least the Maumee River Basin in
Ohio. So where are these nutrient sources coming from? It’s a little bit
different than the the harmful algal blooms of the past say in the 1970s what
we’re seeing now is that the Maumee and Sandusky rivers are the largest
phosphorus loaders to our system about 87 percent of that phosphorus is from
non-point sources making it a little bit more difficult to
manage and also again agriculture was a dominant land use in both of these
watersheds the Maumee and the Sandusky in a study by Baker et al. they looked at
the years 2002 through 2013 and what they found is that 70 to 90 percent of
the phosphorus loads entering the western basin of Lake Erie through the
Maumee River occurred during the highest 20 percent of flows of the river so
that’s about ten storm events per year when almost all the phosphorus loads are
entering the system. So what that looks like in a graph this is for the the
Maumee River again there’s two graphs on the screen you’ll see the panel over
here shows the cumulative spring discharge so we’re looking at a time
period from March 1st through the end of July and what we’re finding is it’s
really that time period that’s critical to predicting the size of the harmful
algal blooms um and what you can see is that uh there
are some really wet years and there are dry years with 2011 or 2012 being very
dry um and then 2015 being one of our wettest years on record um many of you
remember that was an extremely wet June that year and then if you look at the
second panel showing the cumulative spring total bio-available phosphorous
load and this is from the Maumee River these two graphs overlap almost
perfectly so it’s this discharge from the Maumee River that’s bringing in
our total bio-available phosphorus those are coinciding with our large
rainfall events, so again not a lot of phosphorous entering the system in 2012
now as we saw it was a very small bloom that year almost
and then 2015 was our largest bloom on record I’m also our wettest year and
most phosphorus entering through the Maumee River. So again where are these
the nutrients coming from? There’s been about a 75% reduction in phosphorus from
wastewater treatment plants they currently contribute less than 9% of
phosphorus today combined sewage overflows so long-term control plans are
in place so by 2020, 40 of 62 communities along the lake will have addressed this.
In 2013 the CSOs and the Maumee River contributed less than 1% of phosphorous
entering the system; septic systems in the Maumee watershed about 4% of the
phosphorus is estimated to be entering through through septic systems and then
think about urban lawns Scott’s miracle-gro remove phosphorus from their
lawn care products and following that many other providers did as well so
urban you know fertilizing your lawn doesn’t seem to be a huge impact in
terms of phosphorus and estimates are about three to seven percent of the
total phosphorus load is coming from internal loading so phosphorus release
drain anoxic periods and lake if you go through and add those all up that’s
about 21% of our phosphorus leaving about 79 80 percent of the phosphorus
entering through through agricultural sources but we do have some steps moving
in the right direction mandated in Ohio Senate bill 150 then for our nutrient
program I have actually taken this course it was very informative um in
what it talks about is using the right fertilize source at the right rate the
right time and the right place um so what that looks like is avoiding
frozen application of fertilizer and manure and that’s kind of addressing the
right time issue also no fertilizer when rain is forecasted in saturated soils
and both of these are out to outlined in Senate bill one that again is the right
right time issue eliminating broadcast application and
adoption of subsurface placement of fertilizer that’s addressing this right
place so putting the fertilizer where it’s needed below the surface in soil
testing of all fields to prevent application of too much phosphorus so
don’t apply phosphorus above the iron agronomic need is what is stressed in
this nutrient program so that’s addressing this right rate um and also
drainage water management so we understand that water needs to leave
that the farm field quickly for plants to grow but once that water is off the
field um just kind of slowing it down before it enters our stream so
disconnecting the hydrologic pathways a lot of the phosphorus is leaving through
tiles so the addition of wetlands blind inlets and also the use of cover crops
can address this what else can we do so again lawn care so zero phosphorous goal
for for lawn care fertilizers reducing your own property runoff so just like I
talked about drainage water management for agricultural fields this can be the
same issue for your own lawn or parking lots
those other surfaces sewage treatment plant recommendations and also more
closely monitor septic tanks make sure all septic tanks are working as they
should a recent white paper I was a co-author
along with many folks here at OSU along with National Wildlife Federation
Heidelberg USDA ARS we all team together to come up with this white paper so a
lot of what I talk about today and a lot more is covered in that paper so I would
urge folks that are interested to take a look at it it’s been used to develop the
the current Ohio Senate bill 299 that just went through so here at uh go to
OSU edu slash haves white paper you can find that um so quickly here is my ten
minutes who are wrapping up just talk a little bit about the current Ohio Habs
research research initiative this was started by the Ohio State University’s
College of food and environmental sciences they put up 1 million dollars
after the 2014 Toledo water crisis to just kind of start some research in this
space with that they leveraged funds from the Ohio Department of higher
education um that will be about ten million dollars in funding we currently
have funded seven and a half million dollars in projects with two and a half
million still left to allocate um so this research initiative has provided
solutions and practical guidance about producing safe drinking water it’s
really filled critical knowledge gaps um about the risk of algal toxins president
for human health if you looked at how these blooms behave and also address
nutrient runoff into aquatic systems so over 60 projects now have been funded
some are finished at this point some are still ongoing it’s truly been a
collaborative effort um you can see here the Ohio institutions on these projects
along with some federal agencies National Wildlife Federation Nature
Conservancy Farm Bureau and the state agencies have been extremely involved in
this process both with in developing priorities selecting projects for
funding and they’re also involved in quarterly conference calls we have for
this research initiative I’m really driving the research and getting that
information that they need in a timely fashion so now
waiting until till papers are published they get it right as it’s it’s being
conducted you can find reports on the Ohio sea grant webpage outlining all of
these projects that I don’t have time to go into um so there’s a 2016 report on
our 2015 projects there’s a report that was published in 2017 I’m outlining the
findings from the 2015 projects and ongoing 2016 work for each of these
projects oh and there will also be a 2018 report coming out in September or
October outlining the 2016 findings so for each of these there’s an
introduction to the research initiative there’s also an outline of our four
focus areas and what was funded for each focus area there’s an introductory page
talking about the projects in that focus area and then each individual project
has its own summary where you can read about the project and the current
findings so I know I went through that extremely quickly um oh and and one
other thing I didn’t add a slide about it but Ohio State University Ohio Sea
Grant usda-ars we are hosting a harmful algal blooms
state of the science conference in Toledo Ohio on September 13th
information and registration for that event is found on the Ohio Sea Grant
webpage so you can go there register it’s really where all the up-to-date
information um will be discussed it’s a really great event we have presentations
all day and a poster session in the evening so again I know that was super
fast but here is my email address and so please email me or call me with any
questions that you have there’s so much going on I couldn’t do it in 10 minutes
but I’d be happy to share information with folks great Kristin thank you yeah
there’s a reason we call it the speed networking webinar
Cirie’s right and we know that we’re just giving you a tease of some of the
great work that these folks are doing so thank you so much Kristen and we’re
we’re monitoring your questions there in the chat box and we will get to those at
the end so we’ll try to move right on here to to go to grace and her or her
presentation grace is an assistant professor at Iowa State University with
more of an ecological focus and again rather than read that I’ll let you take
a minute to skim her bio there yourself and we will get right on to her
presentation so thank you grace and go ahead wonderful thank you very
much I’m excited to be talking to you all today about some work that I’ve been
doing with a number of folks over the past few years thinking about predicting
her vloger blooms and the crux of this research is really thinking about can we
develop statistical tools to try to predict harmful algal blooms before they
occur and the way that we’re doing this is thinking about haves as a regime
shift so a regime shift is a sharp change from one state in the system so
the clear water state in the lake to another or the algal dominated states
that would be the regime shift of a hab but this isn’t specific to harmful algal
blooms in fact these regime shows happen in a number of different types of
systems for example a grassland shifting to a shrub land suddenly because of the
fire regime a salt marsh to a tidal flat or hard corals being overtaken by macro
algae and in all of these instances whether it’s a harmful algal bloom or
the coral example these can be difficult to predict because they happen so
suddenly and seemingly out of nowhere as we all know with harmful algal blooms
but we know it’s necessary to try to practically predict them in order to
protect the ecosystem services that these ecosystems provide as well as
human health and so if we think a little bit more
about harmful algal blooms as a regime shift imagine that the lake is this
purple ball that’s sitting here and it’s in a basin that represents the clear
water State now there’s another basin over here that
represents the algal dominated state and between them is this saddle of
resilience so when nutrient loading to a lake is
low that saddle or that resilience is really high and it means that the basin
walls are quite steep but if a small perturbation say we’re to
come along rainstorm that added just a small amount of nutrient loading then
that would start to push the ball around in that basin
so our lake would be moving around and if we were to monitor the state of the
lake over time so let’s say we’re monitoring chlorophyll concentrations
we’d see that there’s some variance because of these perturbations and
there’s also autocorrelation autocorrelation as does today look a lot
like yesterday or not and what we find is that when there’s really high
resilience variants and autocorrelation are quite low but as resilience is
lowered and that happens through an increase in nutrient loading then those
same small perturbations are going to come along and now the basin walls are
much more shallow and so the ball is going to be rolling even farther and so
if we followed the state of the system or this bottle over time what we would
see is that the variance is now quite large so it has gotten quite variable
chlorophyll concentrations would be getting quite variable and
autocorrelation would start to be getting quite high and so theoretically
these are the statistical early warning indicators we would expect to see before
the regime shift from a clear water to a novel dominated state so we know in
theory that these should exist and there’s been lots of modeling effort and
work to demonstrate this but what our group was interested in understanding is
can we actually detect this in sort of a messy ecosystem so but what I’m going to
present today is the results of to two bits of work the first was
proof-of-concept experimentation that was done up in northern Wisconsin and
then I’m gonna end by talking about how we are applying and implementing this
here in the state of Iowa so first the proof-of-concept
essentially what a group of researchers and myself did over the past number of
years is we are working out in northern Wisconsin and we wanted to create some
harmful algal blooms with the goal of seeing if we could observe these
statistical early warning indicators in other words can we get the warnings
before the blooms were even visible and we knew they were coming and so we did
this by adding nutrients to small oligotrophic lakes up in northern
Wisconsin and we also had a reference system you can see one of our
experimental lakes where we added nutrients down here and then our
reference system up at the top and we monitored the state of the system by
measuring things like chlorophyll and phycocyanin which is specific to sign of
bacteria dissolved oxygen and pH and we did this with the goal of measuring
those to see but you can see these statistical early warning indicators and
for the sake of time I’m not going to go into a ton of detail about those results
and just try to summarize them here so as you can imagine we add in nutrients
to lakes we got large algal blooms but did we see those early warnings did we
see a rise in variance and a rise in autocorrelation prior to when the bloom
began and the bummin short of it is really yes we did so we did this over
six experimental years and in five out of six of those years we got an algal
bloom and for each one of those years that we saw in algal bloom we saw this
rise in variance and rise in autocorrelation and what I’m showing in
this table that you see here is the number of days prior to the onset of the
bloom that we got that early morning now in some years we only had about a six
day leading wording so about 6 days before we knew but in some cases we knew
almost a month or almost two months beforehand so in essence in our
experimental setting we figured of hey this works pretty well we can see these
early warning indicators and if you’re interested in the details I would
encourage you to check out this publication but we know that the that
our experiments don’t actually look like what the real world looks like great the
real world is even a lot Messier even though we were experimenting in real
lakes and whole ecosystems the real world is even messier than that and
there’s a couple of reasons why that could be and why applying for this tool
as a forecasting tool might not actually work so one of them is that in the lakes
that we’re experimenting on they were oligotrophic and so our time to bloom
that window before we got a really large biomass nuisance by a massive algae was
quite long but in say eutrophic Lakes or lakes that have a hypertrophic or lots
of nutrients coming into them that window or that time to bloom could be a
lot shortened so our window for detecting an early warning could be
shorter and also in our experimental system we were adding nutrients every
day we knew what the nutrient loading rate was and we were a control of that
but we know that in the real world nutrients don’t just get loaded the same
amount every day instead what we see is really episodic no loading events and so
that’s causing more variability within the system and since variance is one of
the things that we’re monitoring that could really mess with our early warning
signal so now what we’re doing in Iowa is we’re trying to apply this early
warning monitoring method to see if it’s actually useful in a quote/unquote real
or messy system so we’re doing this in a number of different lakes and what I’m
going to show you today are just two snapshots out of two of those lakes one
of them is blackcock lake which is pretty large almost 300 hectares it’s
generally shallow although its deepest point is about four and a half meters
and it’s just on the border between eutrophic and hyper eutrophic and then
there’s Swan Lake which is much smaller shallower and very eutrophic this is we
like to call this uber eutrophic so we have chlorophyll and concentrations that
are on average over the past 15 years have been about 91 micrograms per liter
now both of these lakes we selected them because we know that they get from full
algal blooms on an annual basis and so what we wanted to know is could we
observe those early warning indicators before the harmful algal blooms occurred
and I’m excited to share the data with you they actually in the case of Swan
Lake were fresh off of the lake we just downloaded them this week just to give
you a little bit more information this is our monitoring setup we were
monitoring all those on variables the same variables as in the
previous experiment I’ve talked about so for a Blackhawk Lake what we see is that
these are actually data that were collected by the Iowa DNR in 2016
what we see is there is two Bloom periods first early on in the season and
then there was some quiescence and then a bloom that happened later here around
day 2:20 and this gray period so this bloom here was preceded by a rise in
autocorrelation that’s what this y-axis you can interpret that as a the amount
of autocorrelation so autocorrelation was rising substantially and that was
happening 8 to 24 days prior to the bloom so that’s a pretty good early
warning that’s about a two to three week learning that this bloom was about to
occur and as you can see here it’s seemingly happened out of nowhere almost
overnight biomass seemed to double now with Swan Lake that had been quite been
the case we had a bloom earlier this year that happened in early June and we
only saw a sort of a two to three day quote/unquote warning period I wouldn’t
even call it a warning it really was just sort of a hey things are happening
in the lake so it worked in one Lake didn’t work so well in the other and
what we’re finding is that we need to do some more investigation about why it
works in some Lakes and not others but sort of in summary and as my time is
wrapping up here what I hope they’ve been able to quickly demonstrate here is
that these statistical early warnings of haves are actually detectable in lakes
and we certainly showed that in a proof of concept experiments up in northern
Wisconsin and we’re seeing some promise as we’re trying to apply this in Messier
systems and in fact some of that detection happened quite early we had
almost a month lead time we renew about these warnings about a month before the
bloom came and so perhaps that would give us enough time to intervene could
we actually use this as a tool to mitigate or intervene and if you’re
interested in that that’s actually something that we did so I would
encourage you to check out this paper here paste that all 2017 where we
actually did an intervention but then finally what we’re doing down this
application what we’re finding is that these competing drivers are really
muddling our warnings in some of the lakes and so we’re really
excited to continue collecting more data to try to understand in what systems
these work best and if so how we can apply those for actual management
purposes so I look for your questions I see that there’s some happening there
over on the sidebar I want to quick acknowledge all the folks that have been
involved in this research and in particular our funding sources and I
look forward to answering your questions at the end here so thanks great Thank
You grace so much yeah you can see the questions and actually some resources
piling up there so I know we’ll have some questions for you about those
specific indicators and and and we’ll get right on to Devon so we can get to
questions down grace Gill stakeholder engagement specialist at the
co-operative Institute for Great Lakes research and Devon is going to be
talking to us today about engaging stakeholders in Great Lakes harmful
algal blooms research so welcome Devon and Lessman hi thank you for the
introduction so again my name is Devon Gill and I work for the co-operative
Institute for Great Lakes research for those of you who might not be as
familiar with Ziggler we are one of 16 cooperative Institute’s across the u.s.
confession NOAA with environmental research lab in Ann Arbor and hosted by
the University of Michigan there we go so as stable as the
stakeholder engagement specialist I hope to bridge the gap scientists by
developing opportunities for science co-production science co-production is a
research approach that seeks to incorporate potential beneficiaries of
the research throughout the research process so incorporating stakeholders
from proposal development to implementation and all the way through
to final search product dissemination and co-production helps to ensure that
the research products are in fact useful and usable to stakeholders so in my work
it’s a Clara I partner primarily with the harmful algal bloom and hypoxia
research teams that conduct lake monitoring and develop ecological
forecasts i connect these scientists with stakeholders including recreational
anglers charter captains public water systems public service organizations and
other folks who have an interest in the work that we do my approach the
stakeholder engagement is represented by the graphic on the screen there that
kind of cycle numbered cycle I begin by identifying the users of the research
product products and services that are produced by our projects I then conduct
a needs assessment using an appropriate social science method for technical
actions in a focus group or a survey or a series of individual interviews once
I’ve collected my data I analyze it to evaluate our research products in terms
of their ability to meet our stakeholder needs and finally I develop a series of
recommendations for improving the product so that it better meets use
their needs and I also use the information that I’ve gathered to
develop a targeted communication strategy to help better disseminate our
findings oh there we go little slow on the
clicker there all right so now I’m gonna talk to you about how this approach was
applied to a specific project um oh I jumped ahead one back sorry and so this
was a stakeholder engagement Erie recreational anglers and charter boat
captains in reference to our short-term harmful algal bloom forecast the hab
tracker now the hab tracker provides a daily update and five-day outlook of
harmful algal blooms in Western Lake Erie it tells users where the blooms are
how big they are and where they’re likely headed and this is different from
the NOAA hab bulletin which some of you might be familiar with which is sent out
by weekly to listserv this is an experimental hab forecast that also
incorporates a 3d dimension so we’re also looking at vertical distribution of
the haps throughout the water column and this was developed with public water
systems in mind who have an interest in knowing whether or not the blooms are
likely to penetrate to the depth at which the water intakes are located so
even though this product was developed for public water systems the researchers
wanted to know whether or not it might also be useful to Lake Erie anglers so
that’s when I went about developing a focus group study looking to understand
how like Erie anglers are impacted by Habs so that I can determine whether or
not the hab tracker may be able to support them in their decision-making
and alleviate some of the negative impacts that they’re experiencing so I
conducted a series of seven focus groups with a total of 41 participants I
targeted primarily charter captains at 22 charter captains and 21 recreational
anglers participated in this study and I targeted them just because they were
easier to organize and network with because there are already a lot of great
organizations for charter captains and recreational anglers that I could tap
into to find participants in the study so after I conducted my focus groups I
went through and I transcribed all of my interviews and I coded the data which
meant that I looked for different types of like categories of information or
variables that I could group together in code to help answer my research
questions I think compared the occurrence of these codes across
interviews and within the context of within which they occurred to try to
develop themes that serve to answer my research questions and then based on
those themes I was able to generate recommendations for how to improve the
forecast so that sounds a little bit abstract so to talk you through an
example of what I did I have a piece of text down here part of my transcript
where isn’t he makes decisions about whether or not to fish looking at the
modus satellite imagery that’s found actually on the host watch web page and
he’s talking about how we heard about this technology about this website from
a fellow angler so I’ve coated this as communication because he’s talking about
you know hearing about this information from another angler it’s something
that’s on the web and specifically he’s talking about motifs satellite imagery
and this was a code this is something that came up in a number of different
focus groups so I recognized that this was an important source of information
just because of the frequency with which this occurred and as a result we knew
that it would be beneficial to make connections between our coast watch
webpage with the mode of satellite imagery and the hub tracker because that
might help draw traffic to the hub tract or web page and also help to
contextualize the information for them okay so now I want to talk about some of
the results of my coding here and so looking to my first research question
how are Lake Erie anglers impacted by Hobbs I determined that the three
primary decision points that anglers face when fishing in halves whether to
fish where to fish and whether or not to eat the fish and the hab tracker was
able to support decision-making related to the first two questions there and in
the second column you see five different variables that all came out from just
being important to influencing this to making and they were fishing aesthetics
or whether or not they perceived the blooms to be you know gross unappealing
something that they wanted to avoid also angler perceptions of health risks was a
theme that came up a lot their perceptions of their ability to catch
fish as well as charter captains worrying about customer perceptions with
the bloom and how that will impact their business in the future also the idea
that anglers communicate closely with peers to get information about halves
and I’m not going to go too much further in depth into those ideas for the time
and so for my second research question will the hab tracker support angler
decision-making while fishing on Lake Erie wire no not and based on my
evaluation of the decision-making process of anglers I determined that
although anglers differed in the degree to which they sought to avoid halves and
everyone agreed that they would prefer not to fish in halves primarily for
aesthetic reasons because it’s not pleasant so based on that I could
determine that the hab tracker was likely to be useful in anglers by
helping them to find clear water since that is their preference to fish and
clear water possible and then I have below that a list of specific
recommendations that I derived from the focus groups for how to improve the hab
tracker and and some of these are purely cosmetic more about how to make the
information like on our web page where the forecast is located how to make that
information more readable and easier to interpret some of these are and some of
the recommendations are I guess more interpretive it’s based on some of the
questions that I received from anglers about their hesitancy to talk to trust
forecasts in general like how do we know that this is going to be accurate I
don’t trust the weather why would I trust this hab forecast so it’s sort of
clarified for us some of the questions that we need to answer and be explicit
about in terms of the RAI reliability and accuracy of the forecast model and
also we received a lot of questions about that’s great that you’re doing
this forecasting but what are you doing to actually address the plume how is
it’s helping and get us further to limiting the blooms in the first place
so that’s something that we’ve tried to address in our mess
moving forward broadly not just talking with anglers but with all stakeholder
groups okay there we go and so again those recommendations were applied to
developing the hab tracker and also to our webpage and as a result of these
focus groups we did a complete revamp of the hab tracker webpage just to
incorporate that feedback we also produce a hab tracker tutorial video in
response to feedback that we received we use the information to inform the
creation of presentations news articles meetings and I’m going to quickly jump
ahead to the next slide here because this is the information has also been
incorporated into our development of a hab stakeholder engagement plan so that
we can proceed with developing research projects and developing our tools in a
way that’s more informed about stakeholder needs so if you’re
interested in learning more about the specifics of the focus groups and what
anglers said about how they’re how they experience haps I have an article that’s
currently in review and that with the Journal of environmental management
they’ve indicated that they’re likely to publish it so hopefully I will be
sharing more information on that with you all soon and let’s see I’m also
using this approach my stakeholder engagement approach on other projects
not related to halves I’m working with our research team to develop an
experimental Lake Erie hypoxia forecast and with that I’m excited about that
project you’ve been working with public water systems from the very initiation
of that project so it’s I guess this first project that’s been an a true
co-production approach where public water systems were involved in the
development of the proposal and will continue to be very intimately involved
in the project all the way through the end of the project period in five years
I’m also working on launching a stakeholder engagement project with the
short-term and seasonal great lakes ice forecasts that are developed here at
NOAA chloral in partnership with Sigler and with that I guess I’ll leave it open
to questions and thank you all for your attention
thanks domen really appreciate it great presentation and you you remind us that
you know it’s not only this cab right information on but but this visit our
specific presenters like you know what are the other things that you’re working
on what are the other things that people can call call Devon for so thanks for
that at the end and let’s go ahead and go back up through the chat box here and
get to your questions so the first question was was can folks get a copy of
the slides and I’ll just give our presenters and out and say presenters if
you have any concerns about is providing a PDF of these slides to anyone that
asks please let me know in the moderator chat box and but otherwise we’ll just
assume for now that we’ll be able to get a PDF to folks that ask however this
presentation will be archived and available in a week or so and we’ll get
you that URL at the end so you can also have it along with the comments and from
our presenters next question is from Carl who asks I think this was during
Kristin’s presentation please define CSO again does it include runoff from Cape
surfaces lawns routes etc in urban and suburban areas yeah so CSO is combined
sewer overflow and this is an issue during large rain events so I guess my
understanding is yeah these uh you know your sidewalk rain gutters and
everything flows to the wastewater treatment plant so the same way your
household water goes and gets treated before being released back into the lake
so during large storm events that amount of water is too much for a wastewater
treatment plant to treat at one time and they really have no other option and it
all gets combined so it’s not separate it’s not the rainwater and then you know
your toilet flushing it’s kind of all together so they have
no option other than to release untreated sewage into the water which as
you would know that would have a lot of nutrients associated with it and so so
what’s being done now is developing areas that this rainwater during normal
rainfall or no rainfall it can go right to the wastewater treatment plant but
during high storm events can just be held underground in containment systems
and not be released into the lake until the wastewater treatment plant is at a
place where they can treat it and release it with everything else so it’s
stopping you know the release of untreated sewage
into the lake great thanks Kristen and then a question from Ben is the lawn
fertilizer I assume he’s you know the zero
phosphorus lawn fertilizer specific for the state of Ohio or is it nationally
implemented um I believe it’s nationally implemented so
typically a terrestrial systems are nitrogen limited so nitrogen and
potassium are still in the lawn fertilizers the only fertilizer that
you’ll find phosphorus and nowadays just kind of in general is in your starter
fertilizer so if you have a new lawn and you’re trying to get grass to grow
sometimes phosphorus then is needed but overall lawn fertilizers if you look at
that NPK ratio the P should be zero great thank you and then Zuhal asks I
don’t know if this is specific to Kristin and the western lake westernland
Erie Basin or more broadly we can speak to this do we have any brochures or
guidelines for the public to help make them aware about blooms their health
effects and what to do maybe after you’ve been exposed to a harmful algal
bloom um I can start that answer I’m sure
other presenters have information too yeah so hi-c grant has information we
have a few fact sheets so 10 things you should know about haves there’s a
general one just on you know what are harmful algal blooms those can again be
found on our website and hand those out at most of our events we’ve had twine
lions our quarterly magazine we’ve had specific articles in there in regards to
haves and then also I was a part of a factsheet developed with the ABS
collaboratory I’m not sure if all of you are I’m aware of that group but there
are I think two really great fact sheets the one I worked on was dealing with
sources of phosphorus but there are really great two pagers and I can put
the Habs collaboratory link in this chat box but that’s another really wonderful
resource and with the ODH key project funding we did fund a project with
Patrick Lawrence from the University of Toledo and he created a website really
putting together all of these unique resources dealing with have so that’s
another good place to go excellent thank you to our other
presenters want to share any other resources and Kristin you yeah you do
have a request for that link so thanks in advance for putting it in the chat
box okay hearing no other no other resources
outreach resources listed at this time we can go back for those in a minute if
other ideas occurred our presenters so we did provide Thank You Kristin the
link to the state of the science harmful algal bloom event in Toledo coming up in
September I believe so that’s there as a lot as well as a link to the white paper
going down the list here people can stop me if I miss one so in mark one of the
great things about having them our participants be able to share in the
chat boxes we get other resources here so mark Bharath uh shares BS publication
on agriculture nutrients and in the landscape so he has that reference there
for our participants so thank you for that mark and there’s a question here
about what the early early early warning indicators are for harmful elements and
I think that was for you grace yeah so essentially what we’re doing is we’re
monitoring the lake for something like chlorophyll concentration and instead of
watching for the chlorophyll to increase that would be the beginning of the bloom
what we’re doing is we’re watching over time how the variability in chlorophyll
concentrations changes and as the variability starts to increase that’s
the early morning and that happens well before the actual concentrations then
settles start to increase because the bloom has started so that’s what we’re
looking for I hope that clarifies yes thank you
and then zoo Hellas another question is there any mana modeling or software
development project for early bloom detection yeah that’s a fantastic
question um so that’s certainly a part of our plan and in the long term but
first I think it’s important that we want to have more information on when is
best and where is best to apply this as a tool so we’re working on that in
tandem with creating sort of some of these software but I also put some links
to my website where the publications are so if you’re interested in learning more
this and there’s also code associated with publications so if you have your
own dataset and want to try it you can find out there
excellent thank you and Brian um our our technical helper in
the background here asks any hope on the horizon for combating cabs and he lists
a specific idea there bacteriophages that devour cabs and thoughts about that
from our presenters this is Kristin Russell we have funded some of that
research again through this Ohio Department of Higher Education have
refunding one project was looking at it specifically for bio filtration system
so using bacteria to break down break it down that way one of the issues that
we’re seeing is once so if the the cyanobacterial cell has micro Sisseton
which is the toxin within it if a bacteriophage
or a virus attacks that cell and the cell lysis then that micro system is no
longer contained within a cell and it’s within the water and that’s actually
more difficult to treat rather than just getting the cells to precipitate out
themselves from just a water treatment standpoint and toxicity standpoint so
they are looking into that but again it’s kind of early on and there are some
issues I think this is great oh yes I just going to add on Kristin said I
think that seems to be a common problem with a lot of these ways that halves are
dealt with whether it’s copper sulfate or lots of other possibilities but that
it’s that release of the toxin and so I think prevention is probably in my
opinion Prevention’s a pretty important step in that versus trying to deal with
them once they’re there mitigation excellent thank you and thanks for the
question Brian and Lois Wilson has a question and thanks the Louis for
helping us organize this session do fish take out microsystem if yes does
it reside in the fat or muscle tissue um this is Kristen again so we have
funded a project looking at that actually multiple projects across years
led by dr. Stewart Lutsen in the aquatic ecology lab I’m here at Ohio State and
what they found is yes they do take up the toxin micro system is a liver toxin
and it tends to accumulate in the fish’s liver most people don’t eat fish liver
so that’s a good thing but it also is in the fish flesh but what they have found
is that the concentration so if you’re just going to eat fish and you’re
following the fish consumption advisories that are set in place due to
things such as mercury accumulation as long as you’re following those
advisories the fish are safe to eat to that extent interesting Thank You
Rebecca asks is the have stakeholder plan Devon
has can that be shared with the group in Devon is is that plan also in the link
that you shared further down with the fact sheets that have tracker and other
information no it’s not because it’s still in development we’re working
through the final draft but a Miss soon as that’s complete that will likely be
posted on the Sigler website great okay thank you and and and nerdy I’m
wondering and maybe Devon you can share that with us and I’m wondering if
there’s a way we could also post that link on our YouTube page or you know
associated with this webinar so folks could find it there too sure so what
will work okay any other other questions we’re at 2:57 we’ve got three more
minutes or any other points that our presenters want to make before we end okay well hearing none I didn’t advance
to our Q&A page but here once again are the the email addresses for our
presenters and we I’ll just take a minute here
so the webinar will be archived at North Central Water org if you’re a YouTube
aficionado you can also find us directly on YouTube we have an upcoming session
on August 27th this is our north central climate collaborative team that is
hosting a webinar and the impact of link wind energy on rural communities and
then we will have another current session on September 12 a second
Wednesday at 2 p.m. Central 3 p.m. Eastern and our topic is is TBD so stay
tuned for that and thanks again so much for for being with us today and thanks
to our presenters for excellent presentations and resources and we look
forward to hearing from you next time

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